Catch up on the essentials
- Merck is set to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on October 29 before the market opens, according to two recent previews.
- Keytruda's sales were expected to benefit from uptake in earlier-stage indications and continued momentum in metastatic indications, although the year-over-year comparison was expected to be affected by a $250 million wholesaler purchase benefit recorded in the year-ago period.
- Merck's vaccine business was expected to remain under pressure.
Selected from this article · 2026-10-28
Read on for the full pictureMerck's scheduled Q3 report
Merck is set to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on October 29 before the market opens, according to two recent previews. Zacks consensus estimates cited in the reports put quarterly sales at $17.23 billion and earnings at $2.12 per share. These are analyst estimates for the upcoming period, not reported results.
Keytruda and newer products are expected to support sales
Analysts expect growth from Keytruda, whose consensus sales estimate is $7.46 billion, along with contributions from Winrevair, Welireg and Capvaxive and Merck's Animal Health segment. Keytruda's sales were expected to benefit from uptake in earlier-stage indications and continued momentum in metastatic indications, although the year-over-year comparison was expected to be affected by a $250 million wholesaler purchase benefit recorded in the year-ago period.
For Welireg, the consensus sales estimate was $297 million, with reported expectations of stronger U.S. demand and continued launch uptake in certain international markets. Zacks also expected higher Lenvima alliance revenue from U.S. demand, partly offset by lower net pricing, while improved third-quarter Lynparza alliance trends remained an open question.
Gardasil and vaccine weakness remain a drag
Merck's vaccine business was expected to remain under pressure. The consensus estimate for Gardasil and Gardasil 9 sales was $1.81 billion, with analysts expecting year-over-year declines because of weak demand in China, Japan and the United States. Sales of Rotateq, Vaxneuvance, Proquad, M-M-R II and Varivax were also expected to decline, while Capvaxive was expected to improve sequentially.
Estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been revised lower
Over the preceding 30 days, the 2026 earnings estimate fell from $2.77 to $2.65 per share, while the 2027 estimate declined from $9.61 to $9.26. The latest quarterly estimate of $2.12 should therefore be distinguished from those full-year figures. Merck exceeded earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 18.76%, but the reviewed preview did not establish that history would continue in the upcoming quarter.
The coverage also highlighted Keytruda's upcoming patent expiry, Gardasil weakness and generic competition as factors clouding Merck's near-term growth prospects. Its Earnings ESP was -0.99%, and its Zacks Rank was #5, or Strong Sell; these were analytical ratings rather than company guidance or reported operating outcomes.
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