Catch up on the essentials
- Adobe Analytics projected that U.S. online retail sales will reach $275.1 billion between November 1 and December 31, 2026, marking a 6.7% year-over-year increase and a new seasonal record.
- Cyber Week, the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to drive $47.5 billion in online sales, a 7.4% year-over-year gain that would represent 17.3% of the full holiday season's spend.
- Nearly $10 billion is expected during the October 6–7 Prime Day event ($9.9 billion, up 9.2%), with discounts peaking at 19% off listed price.
Selected from this article · 2026-09-29
Read on for the full pictureAdobe's Holiday Forecast and Top-Line Numbers
Adobe Analytics projected that U.S. online retail sales will reach $275.1 billion between November 1 and December 31, 2026, marking a 6.7% year-over-year increase and a new seasonal record. The forecast, drawn from more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories, was released as a formal holiday outlook and described as the most comprehensive view of U.S. e-commerce based on direct transactions.
Cyber Week and Single-Day Spending
Cyber Week, the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to drive $47.5 billion in online sales, a 7.4% year-over-year gain that would represent 17.3% of the full holiday season's spend. Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) is projected to set a new single-day e-commerce milestone, with consumers spending more than $15 billion online ($15.1 billion, up 6.2%). Black Friday is forecast at $12.9 billion (up 9.2%), growing faster than Cyber Monday partly because of deeper discounts on TVs, apparel and appliances, while Thanksgiving is projected at $6.9 billion (up 8.5%), supported by impulse purchases.
Mobile, Discounts and Category Mix
Mobile is set to account for a record 63% of online spend during Thanksgiving, up from 61.6% in 2025, and 57.4% of the full season (up from 56.4%). Electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9%) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7%) remain tentpole categories, while furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3%), grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3%), toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6%) and cosmetics ($9.2 billion, up 9.5%) are forecast to grow faster. Adobe expects competitive deals up to 30% off listed price during Cyber Week, with shoppers using those discounts to stock up on essentials such as personal hygiene and household cleaning products.
October Pre-Season and the Prime Day Effect
Pre-season shopping in October is accelerating, with Adobe projecting $95.8 billion in online spending for the month, up 8% year-over-year. Nearly $10 billion is expected during the October 6–7 Prime Day event ($9.9 billion, up 9.2%), with discounts peaking at 19% off listed price. The report said the Prime Day window has become an industrywide e-commerce moment and is reshaping how U.S. retailers manage promotions and inventory ahead of November and December.
How Consumers Are Shopping
Adobe said the shopping journey is evolving as consumers increasingly rely on AI tools and social influencers to find deals and learn about products, while continuing to use buy-now-pay-later options at checkout. The report also noted that consumer sentiment has fallen 15% this year, according to a September University of Michigan survey, even as Adobe's forecast points to record online spending. Adweek reported the figure; Adobe's own press release framed the forecast as holding despite that strain.
Next Verifiable Milestone
The next verifiable data point is Adobe Analytics' real-time Cyber Monday readout on Dec. 1, 2026, which will benchmark actual online spending against the $15.1 billion projection and the broader $47.5 billion Cyber Week target.
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