JPMorgan backs Imdelltra’s potential but keeps Amgen at Neutral

JPMorgan weighs Imdelltra’s early-line potential

JPMorgan said Amgen’s Phase 3 DeLLphi-305 results for Imdelltra in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer were “impressive” and could support moving the drug into earlier treatment lines. The bank described Imdelltra as a potential $5 billion blockbuster, while retaining a Neutral rating on Amgen and a $350 price target, below the roughly $439 share price cited in the report.

The $5 billion figure is a potential peak-sales estimate, not reported revenue. Morgan Stanley was also cited as estimating roughly $5 billion in annual sales for the product, while maintaining a Neutral rating and $350 target.

Combination treatment prolonged survival

Amgen presented the DeLLphi-305 results at the European Society for Medical Oncology annual meeting over the weekend. Patients receiving Imdelltra with AstraZeneca’s Imfinzi had median overall survival of 21.1 months, compared with 12.7 months for Imfinzi alone. The reported hazard ratio for death was 0.42.

Median progression-free survival was 7.4 months for the combination, versus 1.9 months for Imfinzi alone. JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott said the magnitude of the benefit supported Imdelltra playing an important role in earlier lines of therapy.

Earlier use could broaden treatment opportunity

JPMorgan estimated that a first-line move could expand Imdelltra’s addressable population, increase treatment duration and improve accessibility and compliance. The report put the U.S. first-line small cell lung cancer population at about 23,000 patients, compared with roughly 14,000 in the second-line setting.

It also said median treatment duration in DeLLphi-305 was about 2.5 times that of second-line use. Monitoring for the first two infusions had fallen from 22 to 24 hours to six to eight hours, while first-line maintenance treatment required one to two hours.

Regulatory and valuation caveats remain

Amgen plans to submit the data to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in the near term. JPMorgan said it would not be surprising for the results to enter National Comprehensive Cancer Network and other treatment guidelines before full approval, but that possibility was the bank’s expectation rather than a confirmed regulatory or guideline action.

The Neutral rating and target below the cited market price show that JPMorgan did not equate favorable clinical data with an attractive entry point for Amgen shares. The reviewed reporting did not establish an FDA decision, final first-line approval, guideline inclusion or realized $5 billion sales.