Boeing delays 737 delivery goal and lowers free-cash-flow outlook

Boeing cuts 2026 delivery outlook

Boeing told investors on October 27 that it will miss its 2026 737 production and delivery targets because wing and fuselage constraints are limiting the pace of assembly. The company had planned to build 47 jets per month by the summer, but that rate is now expected in early 2027, making its goal of about 500 737 deliveries this year unattainable.

The production setback followed the company’s third-quarter earnings release and was the central issue confronting investors. Boeing shares fell 10.7% on October 27, described in the reviewed reporting as their worst single-day decline in years.

Free-cash-flow target moves to 2029

Boeing now expects about $3 billion of free cash flow in 2027, compared with analyst expectations of roughly $5.5 billion. Its 2028 estimate is $6 billion, below the $9.6 billion modeled by Wall Street, while its $10 billion target has slipped from 2028 to 2029.

The company attributed the delayed recovery to constraints including wing production, fuselage production and supply-chain costs. Production instability affecting the 737 and 777 programs was also reported as a factor in slowing fixed-cost absorption and deliveries of higher-margin aircraft, with Commercial Airplanes breakeven pushed to early 2028.

Mixed third-quarter performance

Boeing reported an adjusted loss of 34 cents per share, compared with an expected adjusted loss of 21 cents, and generated $464 million of free cash flow in the quarter. Its commercial jet unit posted a $697 million loss on revenue of $10.7 billion, although that represented a substantial improvement from a year earlier.

Defense and services were identified as areas of strength. Boeing delivered 161 commercial jets during the quarter, including 124 737s, bringing its 737 deliveries to 367 for the first nine months. Reaching the approximately 500-delivery annual goal would have required roughly 133 deliveries in the fourth quarter, a pace the factory had not yet demonstrated.

Certifications and debt reduction

The production setback was partly offset by reported progress elsewhere. Regulators certified the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10, and Boeing was selected by the U.S. Navy to design and build its next-generation F/A-XX fighter, although that award remains subject to completion of the review process.

Boeing’s net debt declined to $25.2 billion from $30.4 billion a year earlier. Despite that progress, the lowered cash-flow forecast and continued production constraints leave the company’s planned 52-jets-per-month rate in the second half of 2027 as a central test of whether the recovery delay is temporary or persistent.