Investor pass on AppLovin despite $1.92B revenue
On the September 3, 2026, episode of The Investor's Podcast Network's "We Study Billionaires," host Kyle Grieve, joined by co-host Shawn O'Malley, devoted a full segment labeled "TIP843: AppLovin (APP): The 30-Bagger Down More Than Half" to the mobile ad platform and ultimately declined to recommend the shares. The episode came as AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) closed at $319.05 on September 2, leaving the stock down 52.7% year to date after trading above $656 in late 2025.
Scale vs. durability
Grieve framed AppLovin's scale as the strongest data point in the bull case, noting that "the advertising spend on AppLovin is more than Pinterest, Snapchat's and Reddit's combined revenue." Both podcasts cited AppLovin's Q2 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion paired with 84% EBITDA margins, with 55% of top mobile games already running on the platform. The same scale, however, was used to argue that a rival could replicate the recommendation algorithm and erase the moat overnight.
Valuation math and risk-reward
Grieve's valuation model produced a $480 price target, implying only a 9% compound annual growth rate that the hosts judged insufficient given the competitive risk. Even with strong guidance and aggressive buybacks in the discussion, the risk-reward profile was described as unattractive, leading both Grieve and O'Malley to pass on the stock for the episode.
What remains uncertain
The episode weighed AXON 2's algorithmic edge against the prospect that a new entrant could match it, but no public evidence was presented of an imminent competitor. No next earnings date, analyst note, or company filing was referenced in the cited coverage.
Share this article
