EU safeguard regime and Indian export outlook
On July 30, Crisil Intelligence projected that India's finished steel exports could fall 25-30% year-on-year in FY27, with the country likely losing its net-exporter status after the EU's revised steel safeguard regime took effect on July 1, 2026. The bloc cut annual duty-free import quotas by 47% to 18.3 million tonnes and doubled the out-of-quota tariff to 50%, against a backdrop of global overcapacity and rising import penetration.
India's product-specific quota shrank by roughly 30%, from about 2.8 MT to 1.9 MT, although newly created FTA-linked pools could add 1.2 MT (FTA-CSQ) and 0.4 MT (FTA-others) of competitive access. In calendar year 2025 the EU imported 29.7 MT of steel, with India supplying 2.4 MT—an 8% share—making Europe the destination for nearly 40% of India's finished steel exports. Stainless cold-rolled sheets face the steepest 69% quota reduction, followed by a 59% cut for non-alloy and other alloy cold-rolled sheets. Crisil warned that weaker exports could increase domestic availability and pressure prices, although India's existing safeguard duty on imports is expected to continue offering some support.
European Commission opens product scope consultation
The European Commission launched an eight-week public consultation on July 28, 2026 to assess whether to expand the product scope of the EU Steel Regulation (2026/1384), which entered into force on July 1 to address trade-related effects of global overcapacity. The consultation covers cast-iron tubes, pipes and hollow profiles; non-alloy and other alloy wire; stainless wire; and non-alloy and other alloy forged bars. The Commission is required to finalise its assessment by 31 December 2026.
The regulation sets free-of-duty quotas at 18.3 MT, with a 50% out-of-quota duty and a melt-and-pour transparency regime, aiming to balance predictable market access for third-country suppliers with protection for EU producers. Industry response to the consultation will help determine whether additional categories are brought under EU trade-defence measures.
ArcelorMittal flags stronger European shipments and Q2 earnings rise
ArcelorMittal reported Q2 EBITDA of USD 2.06 billion, up from USD 1.68 billion in the previous quarter, with EBITDA per ton improving to USD 155 from USD 131. Net income reached USD 683 million as crude steel production climbed to 14.3 million tons from 13.3 million tons and shipments rose to 13.4 million tons from 12.8 million tons.
The company said Europe's steel market has begun to recover after the revised TRQ regime took effect on July 1, with stronger order books supporting capacity restarts. It expects Q3 European shipments to remain stable or rise slightly, defying typical seasonal trends, and H2 2026 volumes to exceed H1 across all business segments. ArcelorMittal described the combination of the TRQ system and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as creating a more balanced competitive environment and called for introducing melt-and-pour requirements to strengthen the EU trade-defence framework. Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 remains unchanged at USD 4.5-5 billion, with the company reaffirming that a portfolio of growth projects is targeted to add approximately USD 1.8 billion in annual EBITDA from 2026 onwards.
Tata Steel UK warns FTA quotas could make UK plants unsustainable
Tata Steel UK has cautioned the UK government that tariff quotas permitting cheaper imports from India, Vietnam and China could render UK steelmaking "unsustainable" and threaten domestic supply chains. The company's Llanwern facility in South Wales produces about 600,000 tonnes of galvanised steel annually.
Under the India-UK FTA, India's duty-free quota for metallic-coated galvanised steel rose from 98,000 to 125,000 tonnes a year, while Vietnam's increased from 51,000 to 174,000 tonnes. Tata said imports exceeding set thresholds could face additional tariffs of up to 50% and warned that, without a properly balanced mix of fairly traded imports and domestic output, the UK risks losing the steelmaking capacity that multiple supply chains rely on.
Chinese steel profits remain under pressure despite output cuts
China's ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry posted H1 2026 revenue of RMB 3.68 trillion (USD 513 billion), down 0.6% year-on-year, while total profits fell 25% to RMB 31.77 billion (USD 4.4 billion). Crude steel output dropped 3% to 500 million tonnes as the sector continued to rely on production discipline to defend margins, yet average profit remained at just RMB 64 per tonne (USD 9 per tonne)—up 45% from the previous quarter but down 29% from a year earlier. Operating costs consumed 95.2% of revenue, with the cost-to-profit ratio at 0.91% and the sales profit margin at 0.86%.
Key Chinese steel producers cut output more aggressively—down 3.7% to 408 million tonnes—without generating meaningful profit recovery. Industry data point to continued structural weakness in property-driven construction demand, delays in infrastructure investment despite special-purpose bond issuance, and only modest resilience in manufacturing-led consumption.
Low Rhine and Danube water levels strain German scrap logistics
Low water on the Rhine, Danube and Oder has disrupted scrap deliveries to Germany's steel industry, according to a July 28, 2026 joint statement from the Circular Metal Association and the Federal Association of Secondary Raw Materials and Waste Management. Some Oder sections have seen cargo shipping virtually halt, while Rhine and Danube vessels are operating at half to one-third of normal capacity and freight rates on affected routes have tripled or quadrupled.
CMA Managing Director Guido Lipinski said the displaced volumes cannot easily shift to rail or trucks because of capacity, wagon and infrastructure constraints. The associations urged accelerated federal waterway rehabilitation, better hydrological forecasting, reliable funding for the Waterways and Shipping Administration, support for low-water-capable inland vessels, and a fairer distribution of additional costs along the value chain, noting that some companies have already been forced to reduce output due to raw material shortages.
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