Spot gold and futures decline on dollar strength
Gold prices retreated in Tuesday's session, July 28, as a firmer US dollar made bullion more expensive for foreign buyers. Multiple reports recorded declines of between 0.5% and 1.3% during the session, with intraday quotes ranging from about $4,021 to $4,056 per ounce depending on when the snapshot was taken. US gold futures for August delivery slipped roughly 0.5% to 1.4%, settling between $4,021 and $4,057 per ounce. On India's Multi Commodity Exchange, August gold futures dropped Rs 1,213, or 0.85%, to Rs 141,850 per 10 grams.
The reported levels differ because the quotes were taken at different points across the Asian and European sessions. A Reuters-led report cited spot gold at $4,021.18 by 1020 GMT, an earlier report put the price at $4,056.03 at 0110 GMT, and a third report logged $4,047.22 at 10:25 am in Singapore. Across reports, the dollar held near a one-month to four-week high.
Fed rate decision dominates the market narrative
Markets are positioning for the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that began July 28, with the rate decision due Wednesday, July 29. Expectations are unusually divided for a meeting this close. CME FedWatch data showed the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at about 34% to 36%, up from 16% a week earlier, while interest-rate swaps implied roughly a 40% chance.
Citadel Securities is among the minority forecasting a hike this week, arguing a move would strengthen Fed chair Kevin Warsh's credibility in the inflation fight. Analysts at Shenzhen-based Zhishui Investment Management said upward price action in recent days lacks momentum and is showing some hesitation. OCBC strategist Christopher Wong cautioned that even if the Fed leaves rates unchanged, a hawkish message or a clear signal that further tightening remains under consideration could lend support to real yields and the US dollar, temporarily capping gold's recovery. Markets are pricing in roughly an 81% chance of a hike at the September meeting.
President Donald Trump on Monday reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, arguing the US should have the lowest interest rates in the world. StoneX head of market analysis Rhona O'Connell said bullion has held a tight range around $4,000 since late June, suggesting a breakout is imminent. Fundamentally, the physical markets are still very quiet while professionals are contorting on the interaction between oil, interest rates and the dollar, she added.
China gold imports hit two-year high on record trade surplus
Separate customs data released Monday showed China's net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled year-on-year in June, though they slipped over 5% from May. One report citing the customs data said China imported about 173 tonnes of gold in June, the most since March 2024, worth roughly $23 billion. That haul absorbed close to a fifth of China's record monthly trade surplus of $125.6 billion, up from $105.4 billion in May. The year-to-date trade gap stood at $575.98 billion against $585.96 billion a year earlier.
Banks used the cheaper prices and a firmer yuan to draw down import quotas and stockpile bullion for retail commitments, the report said. Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of The Big Reset, told Kitco News that he estimates Chinese gold demand ran 150% to 200% above last year's levels, though his 150-tonne June figure is well above the World Gold Council's official reading of about 15 tonnes for China's central-bank buying in the same month.
Broader market context and other precious metals
Silver, platinum and palladium all traded lower alongside gold. Spot silver fell 1.7% to $57.39 per ounce, platinum lost 0.8% to $1,608.20, and palladium slid 1.5% to $1,272.25. Oil prices hovered near one-week lows on hopes for a resolution in the US-Iran conflict after Trump said Monday the two sides were having good talks and that there was a good chance of a deal, while warning strikes would resume if negotiations failed.
Bullion-backed exchange-traded funds added holdings for five straight sessions, the longest streak since May, supported by dip-buying. Gold remains down roughly 25% since the US-Iran conflict began about five months ago, but has held near the $4,000 support level since late June. In corporate news, Gold Fields said Monday it had submitted a lease-renewal proposal to Ghana this month for its Tarkwa gold mine.
Central-bank backdrop and longer-term reserves picture
Independent data back the broader trend of official-sector accumulation. World Gold Council figures showed central banks bought 1,082 tonnes of gold in 2022, 1,037 tonnes in 2023, about 1,045 tonnes in 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025, the fifth consecutive year of roughly 1,000-tonne demand, equivalent to about a third of annual mine output. According to the European Central Bank, gold overtook US Treasuries as the second-largest reserve asset behind the dollar, reaching about 27% of global reserves at the end of 2025, up from 20% a year earlier, while Treasuries slipped to 22%. One analyst noted that the US still values its roughly 8,000-tonne official gold holding at the historical price of $42 per ounce, unlike the ECB, which marks holdings to market.
US trade data showed gold becoming a top American export by value, reaching a record $17.88 billion in February 2026, consistent with metal flowing from West to East as price discovery shifts toward Shanghai.
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