Morgan Stanley Calls Tesla Semi Earnings Potential 'Underappreciated' as $6 Diesel Reshapes Trucking Case

Morgan Stanley lifts Tesla bull-case target on Semi outlook

Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case price target on Tesla by $20 to $840 a share, framing the Tesla Semi as an "underappreciated driver of earnings growth through 2040." Analyst Andrew Percoco wrote that "Tesla has become a credible emerging competitor in autonomous trucking," while keeping the bank's base case at a $400 price target with an equal weight rating on Tesla stock. The $840 bull case would imply a roughly 130% increase from the stock's Friday opening price of $364.20, and shares traded up less than 1% on the day.

$6 diesel and autonomous FSD subscription economics

The renewed optimism rests on diesel prices near $6 a gallon, which strengthen the economic case for electrified and eventually autonomous long-haul trucking. Once fully autonomous, Percoco estimated that the Tesla Semi would generate 85 cents to $1 per mile in Full Self-Driving subscription fees, equating to $12,000 to $18,000 per operational truck each month. By comparison, he projected about $100 per month in FSD revenue for consumer Tesla vehicles, a gap he called "the most important takeaway of this note for a Tesla investor." The analyst added that even modest Semi volumes could therefore move Tesla's earnings needle.

Mass production timeline and order book status

Tesla began mass-producing the Semi in May 2026 after repeated delays, and orders for the Class 8 truck have opened. Investors' Business Daily reporting on September 11 noted that mass production is now underway, though detailed order backlog figures were not disclosed in the note or accompanying coverage. Tesla stock has reclaimed its 50-day moving average but remains below its 200-day line, a technical backdrop that frames the analyst's upgraded bull scenario against still-cautious base-case math.

Near-term milestones to watch

Key checkpoints for the thesis include Tesla's next quarterly deliveries and earnings updates, where any disclosure of Semi production rates or FSD-attached fleet revenue would test the per-mile subscription assumptions. Investors will also be watching diesel price trends and the pace of orders for the Semi as the truck moves from limited rollout toward broader commercial deployment.