SpaceX set to release first earnings as public company, with AI spending and post-IPO slide in focus

The debut earnings test for a newly public SpaceX

SpaceX is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on August 4, its first earnings disclosure since listing on the public markets in June. Trading under the ticker SPCX, the company went public at $135 per share, briefly climbed to $225.64 and has since fallen to $108.37 as of July 31, a decline of more than 50% from its post-IPO high. Management will host a live audio webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time, available through SpaceX's investor-relations site and on X, with the report covering the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

Wall Street's revenue and AI assumptions

Analysts are projecting second-quarter revenue of about $6.88 billion, with a net loss per share of $0.23, while Morgan Stanley's model is slightly more cautious at roughly $6.75 billion in revenue and an adjusted loss per share of $0.35. For comparison, SpaceX reported first-quarter revenue of $4.69 billion and a loss per share of $1.27. Investors expect the growth to come from AI and Starlink rather than launch: AI revenue is forecast to rise from $818 million in the first quarter to $2.18 billion, launch services by nearly 35% to $835 million, and connectivity revenue, which includes Starlink, to $3.83 billion, a 17.5% increase from the prior quarter.

Musk's AI spending under scrutiny

Reuters reports that the debut results will put Musk's AI spending under a Wall Street microscope, with capital intensity and AI-related costs among the items investors will scrutinize. CNBC frames the release against the backdrop of a sharp post-IPO plunge that has reset expectations for the company. A TradingKey summary of Morgan Stanley's note values SpaceX's traditional space business at about $8 per share, Starlink and connectivity at around $128, the X platform and Grok at about $12, and the enterprise AI business at $152, meaning AI contributes more than half of the bank's $300 target price and implies potential upside of more than 170% from the July 31 close.

Starlink as the revenue anchor

Starlink is positioned as the most stable revenue foundation for SpaceX, with first-quarter consumer subscribers reaching 10.3 million across personal broadband, aviation, mobile networks and government services. Morgan Stanley expects second-quarter consumer subscribers to rise toward 12 million, with average monthly revenue per user of approximately $65.50. Musk, replying on X on August 1 to a post about SpaceX's growth potential, said "few people understand this" and projected that accelerated expansion of AI computing infrastructure and Starlink could add annualized revenue equivalent to Tesla's current size, roughly $95 billion to $104 billion, over the next 12 to 24 months.

What the report is not expected to deliver

The August release announcement does not promise a specific level of segment detail, and SpaceX's pre-IPO disclosures had reported mixed segment results, with AI-related operations previously recording an operating loss. Investors are being told to focus on reported results rather than pre-release estimates, with cash use, capital spending, segment economics, Starlink adoption, launch activity and government revenue among the most useful figures to watch. With figures still circulating as forecasts before the filing, CBS News flags the report as the first benchmark for evaluating SpaceX's scale, spending priorities and performance as a publicly traded company.

Immediate milestones on the horizon

Beyond the August 4 release, a roughly $100 billion lock-up expiration is scheduled for August 6, adding a near-term overhang on the share price. The earnings webcast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on August 4, followed by that lock-up event, will set the next verifiable checkpoints for the stock.