What the Weekend Projections Show
Warner Bros. is opening director David Robert Mitchell's "The End of Oak Street" in roughly 3,400 North American theaters, with the studio guiding to a domestic debut of $18 million to $23 million. The studio projects an additional $20 million to $25 million from international markets, against an $80 million-plus production budget. The PG-13 sci-fi survival film, written and directed by Mitchell, stars Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor as part of a family confronting dinosaurs in their transplanted early-1980s suburb. Industry trackers cited by Variety placed the broader opening estimate at $20 million to $30 million.
The Family-Market Challenger
Paramount is countering with "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie," releasing in more than 3,500 North American locations after pulling in more than $27 million from 30 international markets already open. Paramount projects a domestic debut in the mid-to-high teens on a $39.5 million production budget. Director Cal Brunker's sequel features voice work from Mckenna Grace, Terry Crews, Jennifer Hudson and Snoop Dogg, and holds an 85 percent Rotten Tomatoes critics score. For context, 2023's "PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie" opened to $22.7 million domestically and finished at $205 million worldwide, against the 2021 original's $144 million global run.
Spider-Man's Third Weekend Run
Sony and Marvel's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" is forecast to earn $65 million to $70 million domestically over its third weekend, a roughly 55 percent drop, enough to hold the No. 1 slot. After 12 days in theaters, the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed Tom Holland-led feature has grossed $671 million domestically and $1.68 billion globally, already 2026's highest-grossing release. Sony expects it to cross $700 million domestically within a day or so and to reach $2 billion worldwide at near-record pace, joining only "Avatar," "Avengers: Endgame" and "Titanic" among films to surpass that benchmark theatrically.
The Wider New-Release Field
Three additional titles join the marketplace behind those two anchor films. Black Bear is releasing Matthew McConaughey's "The Rivals of Amziah King," Neon is opening Kristen Stewart's stoner comedy "The Wrong Girls," and Angel Studios is debuting historical drama "The Brink of War." Together with "The End of Oak Street" and "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie," the slate makes for five new nationwide releases against the third-weekend "Spider-Man" holdover.
Reception and Stakes
"The End of Oak Street" carries an 82 percent Rotten Tomatoes critics score, with The Hollywood Reporter's chief film critic David Rooney calling it "mindlessly entertaining in a big-dumb-fun kind of way." At its premiere, Hathaway told the outlet she was grateful "that audiences want to go see original things, and this movie is really original." The picture's projected debut sits below the upper end of tracking but above the low end, and its budget makes word-of-mouth crucial if it is to remain a draw through August.
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