Record post-IPO selloff
SpaceX (SPCX) traded at a record low on Monday, down approximately 31% from its first-day closing price, according to Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi. The stock opened at $150 per share when SpaceX made its Nasdaq debut on June 12 and closed that first session at $160.95 after heavy demand from institutional and retail investors. The post-IPO decline reflects investor focus on near-term performance and anticipated insider selling once lockup periods expire.
Historic IPO comparison
Creative Planning data cited in coverage indicates that over the past 15 years, the average one-year decline from the first-day closing price of newly public companies has been 52%. Among large U.S. IPOs tracked in that period, only Palantir, Airbnb, Arm Holdings, Snowflake, and Maplebear posted positive returns one year after listing. Benzinga reported that SPCX shares were down 23.29% since the listing and 25.54% over the prior month, having closed 2.68% lower at $115.07 on the prior Friday.
Looming lockup expirations
Restrictions on additional stock sales by insiders, employees, and early investors will lift over the coming months. According to Yahoo Finance, rank-and-file employees and some early investors will be able to unload 911.5 million shares on the second trading day after SpaceX's first quarterly report. Benzinga and Stocktwits, citing Morningstar, characterized the August 6 release as a structural test for the stock and warned that lockup supply could outweigh demand from index funds, with more than 6.4 billion shares potentially becoming eligible for sale over time.
First earnings and Tesla merger uncertainty
SpaceX is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Yahoo Finance noted that no timeline has been set for the speculated merger of SpaceX and Tesla, and concerns about potential near-term selling continue. The Motley Fool reported that the company raised $75 billion in its IPO at a market value of $1.7 trillion and posted a first-quarter net loss of $4.2 billion, while Koyfin estimates project quarterly revenue of $6.87 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.22 per share. Morgan Stanley reiterated a $300 price target, saying the selloff has outpaced any change in fundamentals.
Index inclusion dynamics
Even as the share price has declined, SpaceX's weighting in major index funds may rise. Stocktwits, citing Morningstar, noted that SPCX represented 0.98% of the Invesco QQQ Trust as of July 22 and that expanded float from expiring lockups could push the stock's float-adjusted market cap to roughly $675 billion, placing it between Walmart and Intel in Nasdaq weighting calculations.
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