Global crude steel production trends
Global crude steel production rose 1.7 per cent year-on-year to 155.7 million tonnes in June 2026, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel), driven by higher output in major producing regions. The 70 reporting countries, which account for about 98 per cent of global crude steel production, produced 155.7 million tonnes during the month compared with June 2025. Cumulative output for January-June stood at 931.5 million tonnes, down 0.7 per cent from the corresponding period last year.
Asia and Oceania, the world's largest steel-producing region, recorded output of 115.2 million tonnes in June, up 1.5 per cent year-on-year. The European Union increased production by 4.6 per cent to 10.8 million tonnes, while North America posted a 5 per cent rise to 9.5 million tonnes. Africa reported the sharpest regional growth at 20 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes. In contrast, production declined in the Middle East by 13.4 per cent to 4 million tonnes, in Russia and other CIS countries plus Ukraine by 2.2 per cent to 6.8 million tonnes, and in South America by 0.3 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes.
India and Vietnam drive national growth
India retained its position as the second-largest steel producer, with crude steel output rising 4.5 per cent year-on-year to 14.1 million tonnes in June. India's production during January-June climbed 7.1 per cent to 87 million tonnes, the fastest growth among the top five steel-producing nations. China, the world's largest producer, increased output by 0.4 per cent to 83.7 million tonnes in June, though its first-half production was down 3 per cent at 500 million tonnes.
Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing producer among the top 10 globally, with worldsteel reporting a 27.5 per cent surge in June output. Separately, the Vietnam Steel Association reported that the country produced 15.18 million tonnes of crude steel in the first half of 2026, up 26.9 per cent year-on-year. Domestic and export sales of crude steel reached 14.81 million tonnes, an increase of 25.5 per cent compared with the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil was the standout product, with production up 41.9 per cent to 5.397 million tonnes and exports surging 62.2 per cent year-on-year to 758,000 tonnes.
European green steel market outlook
A divided outlook is emerging for Europe's green steel market through 2035, according to Fastmarkets' updated forecast, as different EU Allowance price trajectories reshape the cost competitiveness and uptake of lower-emission steel. Under a current-policy scenario, EUA prices are forecast to exceed €200 per tonne in 2035, raising blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace production costs by 124 per cent relative to 2025 levels and eventually making conventional steel more expensive than EAF-produced alternatives.
Under a policy moderation scenario, EUA prices would not rise more than 50 per cent above 2025 levels, with blast furnaces remaining competitive into the 2030s. Green steel supply in that scenario is projected to fall to 12.5 million tonnes by 2035, down from 15.9 million tonnes in the previous report. The European Commission's 17 July EU ETS review points towards a more gradual rise in carbon costs, lowering the ETS cap contraction rate to 3.7 per cent in 2031-2035 and 1.7 per cent in 2036-2040.
US trade actions and tariff dynamics
The US International Trade Commission has instituted antidumping duty (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations on welded stainless steel line and pressure pipe from India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. The investigations follow petitions filed on 15 July 2026 by Bristol Pipe and Tube, Felker Brothers Corporation, and Primus Pipe and Tube. The petitions cover AD and CVD investigations on imports from India and Turkey, and an AD-only investigation on imports from the UAE. The US Department of Commerce is expected to initiate its own investigations on or around 4 August 2026.
Posco Holdings' two-track strategy for navigating US steel tariffs is showing signs of imbalance. While the Louisiana steel mill project with Hyundai Steel is advancing on schedule, talks with Cleveland-Cliffs over a potential equity stake have struggled to gain momentum. Cleveland-Cliffs said during its second-quarter earnings call that it was in no rush to finalise a deal, noting that doing business in the United States is never cheap. Cliffs expects to post its best annual earnings since 2021, with second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $286 million roughly triple the first-quarter figure, as Section 232 tariffs continue to lift domestic steel prices.
Indian industry policy and decarbonisation
India's steel industry must diversify, look for new export markets, and accelerate decarbonisation to remain globally competitive amid a rapidly shifting trade landscape shaped by carbon border measures and tariff actions, Ashwini Kumar, Economic Advisor in the Ministry of Steel, said at the ASSOCHAM India Steel Conclave 2026. Kumar noted that the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will make market access in high-value destinations increasingly dependent on the carbon intensity of the production process, posing a challenge for high-carbon-intensity Indian exports.
Tushar Makkar, Head of Corporate Communications at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, highlighted that India remains dependent on imports for approximately 85 per cent of its coking coal requirements, exposing producers to supply-chain disruptions and price volatility. Separately, the Hyundai-POSCO Louisiana Steel joint venture plans to hold a ground-breaking ceremony in September, with commercial production at the $5.8 billion, 2.7 million-tonne-capacity facility targeted for 2029.
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