Gold steadies near $4,054 as Fed decision, oil swings and West Asia tensions test bullion

Weekly price action

Comex gold futures for August delivery settled at USD 4,070.8 per ounce, up USD 52 or 1.3 percent on the week, while Comex silver for September rose about 5 percent to USD 58.90 per ounce, according to analyst commentary published on July 26. In India, MCX gold futures for August delivery climbed Rs 2,200, or 1.6 percent, to Rs 1.43 lakh per 10 grams, with MCX silver for September up Rs 5,735, or 2.7 percent, to Rs 2.22 lakh per kilogram. A separate Kuwaiti market wrap also reported the week ending around USD 4,054 per ounce, with bullion stabilizing in the USD 4,050-USD 4,065 range after a roughly 2 percent slide in the prior session.

Fed decision and macro data in focus

Analysts framed the July 26 session as a setup for the US Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled for July 29, with markets largely expecting rates to be held unchanged. Investors were also watching US Consumer Confidence, core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, weekly jobless claims and monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said sentiment would hinge on US-Iran developments, the direction of crude and their effect on inflation expectations ahead of the Fed meeting. Comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the decision were highlighted as the next key signal for bullion's trajectory.

Oil and West Asia tensions

Bullion swung sharply during the week after Brent crude briefly reclaimed USD 100 a barrel following Houthi strikes on Saudi-owned vessels, stoking supply-disruption fears, before oil retreated on profit-taking and helped metals recover toward Friday's close. A Bloomberg-syndicated report on July 26 said gold fell as President Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest peace offer to end a 10-week conflict choking the Strait of Hormuz, fanning inflation worries as weekend clashes in the Middle East threatened a fragile ceasefire. Analysts said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and any easing in Iran tensions would be a decisive swing factor for both crude and bullion. A Kuwait market note attributed the bulk of last week's volatility to higher oil prices tied to Middle East risks, and to the prospect that sustained energy costs could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer.

Regional markets

In Pakistan, the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewelers Association reported gold per tola at Rs 427,736, up Rs 300, with 10 grams at Rs 366,714, recovering from a Rs 4,600 drop on July 25; international rates were cited at USD 4,053 an ounce and silver at Rs 6,297 per tola. In Kuwait, 24-karat gold was reported near 40.800 Kuwaiti dinars per gram and 22-karat around 37.400 dinars, with silver near 684 dinars per kilogram. China's central bank was cited as having continued to accumulate gold in May, reinforcing official-sector demand as a structural support for the metal.

Technical levels and outlook

A Dar Al Sabaik technical read published on July 26 said gold's overall trend remained weak despite the late-week bounce, with prices still below key moving averages. Key support was placed at USD 4,000, then USD 3,941 and USD 3,886, with USD 3,500 flagged as important long-term support; resistance was identified at USD 4,100, then USD 4,165 and USD 4,200. Praveen Singh, head of commodities at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said gold and silver were likely to trade in a range as markets continued to monitor Iran-related developments. The next verifiable milestones are the Fed's July 29 policy decision and accompanying commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside US PCE inflation and consumer confidence releases.