Gold's volatile session leaves weekly gains intact
In early Asian trade on Friday (Jul 24), gold dropped as much as 0.7% to around $4,020 per ounce, extending the 2% decline from the prior session and erasing much of the week's earlier dip-buying gains. Spot gold was 0.5% lower at $4,030.90 an ounce as of 11:46 am Singapore time and 0.1% down at $4,042.77 by 0110 GMT, with US August futures easing 0.1% to $4,045.60. Prices then recovered as oil pulled back: by 1115 GMT spot gold was 0.4% higher at $4,061.36 per ounce, and gold rallied to $4,065 at London's 3pm auction, up 1.7% from the prior Friday's eight-month weekly low. Reports differ on the weekly performance, with one tally putting bullion on track for a 0.6% gain and another citing 0.8%; both pointed to gold's first weekly advance in three weeks.
Brent's surge above $100 and Middle East conflict reshape demand
Gold's intraday swings tracked Brent crude, which rallied above $100 a barrel on Thursday (Jul 23) for the first time since May after Yemen-based Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Brent jumped 7% in that session, one of the steepest moves since the conflict's start, before easing back below the milestone in Asian hours on Friday. President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened "major military punishment" for Iran and its Houthi allies and indicated that Iran would be held responsible for any further attacks on Red Sea shipping. Reports also indicated Iran rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal, prolonging uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz.
Rate-hike bets and elevated Treasury yields pressure bullion
Rising energy costs and resilient US employment prompted traders to lift expectations for tighter monetary policy. Initial US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 187,000, the lowest reading in decades, helping push the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since January 2025, while two-year yields rose for a sixth straight session. Swap markets priced an 81% chance—roughly 80% per one Reuters dispatch—of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, and a 34% probability of a move at next week's meeting, according to CME FedWatch data. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged on Thursday but held the door open to another increase in September. Nomura analysts said they expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged next week, adding that Chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to deliver major policy signals because updated economic forecasts and a revised dot plot are not scheduled for the July meeting.
Other precious metals and corporate updates
Silver softened alongside gold in early trade, falling 0.2% to $57.56 an ounce and later fixing around $58.35 at midday in London before recovering. Platinum was 0.5% lower at $1,592.97 and palladium dropped 0.8% to $1,246.72. BullionVault reported silver rose for the seventh week of the Middle East conflict, reversing 75% of the prior week's 6.8% plunge. Bond market strains deepened, with Germany's 10-year Bund touching 2011 levels, the US 30-year Treasury hitting 2007 highs and Japan's 5-year JGB reaching record highs. Newmont, the world's biggest gold miner, beat second-quarter profit estimates on Thursday, while African Rainbow Minerals said its board approved a phased 15.2 billion rand ($927.28 million) upgrade of its Bokoni platinum-group operations and the resumption of nickel mining at Nkomati.
Physical markets, reserves and regulation
India's gold discounts widened to a seven-week high as demand remained subdued after the recent rebound, while top consumer China saw an improvement in buying interest. Domestic MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery fell Rs 1,120 to Rs 218,255 per kilogram, and gold futures for August 2026 delivery dropped Rs 185 to Rs 142,208 per 10 grams—taking the two-day losses to roughly Rs 8,743 on silver and Rs 3,500 on gold. Azerbaijan's sovereign oil fund SOFAZ kept its gold holdings unchanged at 178.1 metric tons in the second quarter. Thailand's central bank proposed cash-payment limits for physical gold bar trades at gold shops to improve transparency and oversight of transactions that could affect exchange rates.
Technicals, dollar backdrop and what to watch next
Analysts at Prithvi Finmart identified gold support at $4,014–$3,965 and resistance at $4,084–$4,122 an ounce, with silver support at $57.40–$56.60 and resistance at $59.10–$60.00. IG senior market analyst Tony Sycamore said gold remained technically well-positioned after establishing support above the late-June low near $3,942, adding that a decisive break above the early-July peak at $4,202 could strengthen bullish momentum toward the 200-day moving average around $4,495. The US Dollar Index held near 101.45 after Thursday's gains, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed following a 0.3% rise the prior session. Markets are pointing to next week's Federal Reserve July meeting as the next major catalyst, with the Fed widely expected to keep rates unchanged; continued Middle East developments and any further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant geopolitical swing factor for both bullion and crude.
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