UBS: China trails ASML by roughly a decade in EUV lithography, stuck near 2004-era maturity

UBS frames China's EUV position as a decade behind ASML

Analysts at UBS told Bloomberg that China's domestic extreme-ultraviolet lithography capabilities sit roughly ten years behind ASML and resemble where the Dutch lithography leader stood around 2004, about 15 years before ASML began mass-producing EUV systems. The bank pointed to a surge in Chinese patent filings, particularly around light sources and laser subsystems, as the most visible signal of progress, but concluded that a working EUV tool is unlikely within the next decade. Tom's Hardware, summarizing the note, reported that Beijing's semiconductor equipment industry "remains well behind Western rivals" on the most advanced lithography nodes.

DUV timeline narrows while EUV timeline stretches

UBS estimated that China could reach high-volume manufacturing of immersion deep-ultraviolet lithography systems within two to five years, a markedly shorter horizon than its EUV outlook. TrendForce, citing Bloomberg and BigGo Finance, framed the split as DUV scaling first, with EUV remaining out of reach on a ten-year view. The same TrendForce brief noted that ASML's immersion DUV systems list at roughly US$90 million per unit, while its most advanced EUV systems cost more than US$200 million each.

China's state-backed effort and prototype status

TrendForce, referencing a late-2025 Reuters investigation, reported that a Chinese prototype EUV machine completed in early 2025 was undergoing testing and occupies nearly an entire factory floor, with sources saying it can generate EUV light but has not yet produced a working chip. TrendForce characterized the program as a secretive, state-backed effort likened to a "Manhattan Project." Separately, TrendForce cited a July Reuters report that Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group has begun mass-producing domestically developed immersion DUV tools.

Production targets and ASML's exposure to China

According to The Information, as cited by TrendForce, China plans to build about five immersion DUV lithography machines this year and roughly 20 in 2027. TrendForce also flagged the commercial impact on ASML: China accounted for 14% of ASML's net system sales by shipment location in the second quarter of 2026, down from 19% in the first quarter, with EUV systems barred from shipment to China under existing export restrictions.

What remains uncertain

The UBS estimates do not name the Chinese research groups or prototype facilities underpinning the comparison, and TrendForce's reporting relies on Reuters-sourced anonymous sources for both the EUV prototype's status and Shanghai Aishengna's mass-production claim. Whether China's DUV tools can match ASML's yield and uptime at customer fabs, and whether Beijing will accelerate EUV work in response to additional Western export controls, remain open questions in the public evidence.